SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 61.09%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 18.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.56%) and 1-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.6%), while for a Stoke City win it was 1-2 (4.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United | Draw | Stoke City |
61.09% ( 0.39) | 20.65% ( 0.06) | 18.26% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 56.48% ( -1.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.09% ( -1.03) | 39.91% ( 1.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.72% ( -1.08) | 62.27% ( 1.08) |
| Leeds United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.38% ( -0.21) | 12.62% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.25% ( -0.43) | 38.74% ( 0.44) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.64% ( -1.1) | 35.36% ( 1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.88% ( -1.16) | 72.12% ( 1.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leeds United | Draw | Stoke City |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.3)1-0 @ 9.24% ( 0.37)3-1 @ 6.86% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.16)3-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 3.55% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.08)5-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.66% Total : 61.09% | 1-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.15)0-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.21)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.18% Total : 20.65% | 1-2 @ 4.99% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 4.64% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.7% Total : 18.26% |
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