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Championship | Gameweek 8
Oct 1, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadium of Light
DL

Sunderland
2 - 0
Derby

Bellingham (40'), Isidor (55')
Cirkin (25'), Mepham (59')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Harness (36'), Goudmijn (89')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Watford 2-1 Sunderland
Saturday, September 28 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 2-3 Norwich
Saturday, September 28 at 12.30pm in Championship

We said: Sunderland 1-0 Derby County

Sunderland will be determined to return to winning ways in front of their own supporters, and we can see the Black Cats shading a close game on Tuesday night, with the winner potentially coming in the latter stages of the fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 43.22%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.

Result
SunderlandDrawDerby County
43.22% (0.0040000000000049 0) 25.52% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 31.26%
Both teams to score 54.59% (0.017000000000003 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.83% (0.021999999999998 0.02)49.16% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.76% (0.018000000000001 0.02)71.23% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Sunderland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.33% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)22.67% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.69% (0.015000000000001 0.02)56.31% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.59% (0.010999999999996 0.01)29.41% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.59% (0.014000000000003 0.01)65.4% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Sunderland 43.22%
    Derby County 31.26%
    Draw 25.51%
SunderlandDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.89% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.99% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 7.34% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 4.45% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 3.63%
3-2 @ 2.72% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 1.65% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 1.35% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.01% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 43.22%
1-1 @ 12.1% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.67% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.5% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.11% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.51%
0-1 @ 8.16% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.41% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.99% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 3.02% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-3 @ 2.24% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 2.04% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 31.26%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Watford 2-1 Sunderland
Saturday, September 28 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Sunderland 1-0 Middlesbrough
Saturday, September 21 at 12.30pm in Championship
Last Game: Plymouth 3-2 Sunderland
Saturday, September 14 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Portsmouth 1-3 Sunderland
Saturday, August 31 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Sunderland 1-0 Burnley
Saturday, August 24 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Sunderland 4-0 Sheff Weds
Sunday, August 18 at 12pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 2-3 Norwich
Saturday, September 28 at 12.30pm in Championship
Last Game: Sheff Utd 1-0 Derby
Saturday, September 21 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Cardiff
Saturday, September 14 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 3-0 Bristol City
Saturday, August 31 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Barrow 0-0 Derby (3-2 pen.)
Tuesday, August 27 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Watford 2-1 Derby
Saturday, August 24 at 3pm in Championship


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