SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 47.07%. A win for Norwich City had a probability of 27% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Norwich City win was 0-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Norwich City |
47.07% ( -0.14) | 25.93% ( 0.06) | 27% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 50.75% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.04% ( -0.2) | 52.96% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.44% ( -0.17) | 74.55% ( 0.17) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.51% ( -0.15) | 22.49% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.95% ( -0.22) | 56.04% ( 0.22) |
| Norwich City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.48% ( -0.05) | 34.52% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.76% ( -0.05) | 71.23% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Norwich City |
| 1-0 @ 11.58% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8.64% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.57% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.3% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.71% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.6% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.14% Total : 47.07% | 1-1 @ 12.32% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.76% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.95% Total : 25.92% | 0-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 6.55% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.32% 2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.19% Total : 27% |
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