Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 48.29%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 26.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Watford in this match.
