Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Watford had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.

Result
Newport County	Draw	Watford
41.18%	27.29%	31.53%

Both teams to score 49.17%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.82%

56.18%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.76%

77.24%

Newport County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.16%

26.84%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.86%

62.14%

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.21%

32.79%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.64%

69.35%

Score Analysis

Newport County 41.17%

Watford 31.53%

Draw 27.28%

Newport County	Draw	Watford
1-0 @ 11.57% 2-1 @ 8.49% 2-0 @ 7.61% 3-1 @ 3.72% 3-0 @ 3.34% 3-2 @ 2.08% 4-1 @ 1.22% 4-0 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.05% Total : 41.17%	1-1 @ 12.9% 0-0 @ 8.8% 2-2 @ 4.73% Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.28%	0-1 @ 9.81% 1-2 @ 7.2% 0-2 @ 5.47% 1-3 @ 2.67% 0-3 @ 2.03% 2-3 @ 1.76% Other @ 2.59% Total : 31.53%