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EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 22, 2020 at 7pm UK
Rodney Parade
WL

Newport
3 - 1
Watford

Abrahams (18' pen.), Labadie (28'), Amond (65')
Labadie (42'), Bennett (80')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Penaranda (54' pen.)
Stevenson (17'), Agyakwa (40'), Penaranda (62'), Pussetto (76')
Perica (89')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Watford had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.

Result
Newport CountyDrawWatford
41.18%27.29%31.53%
Both teams to score 49.17%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.82%56.18%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.76%77.24%
Newport County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.16%26.84%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.86%62.14%
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.21%32.79%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.64%69.35%
Score Analysis
    Newport County 41.17%
    Watford 31.53%
    Draw 27.28%
Newport CountyDrawWatford
1-0 @ 11.57%
2-1 @ 8.49%
2-0 @ 7.61%
3-1 @ 3.72%
3-0 @ 3.34%
3-2 @ 2.08%
4-1 @ 1.22%
4-0 @ 1.1%
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 41.17%
1-1 @ 12.9%
0-0 @ 8.8%
2-2 @ 4.73%
Other @ 0.85%
Total : 27.28%
0-1 @ 9.81%
1-2 @ 7.2%
0-2 @ 5.47%
1-3 @ 2.67%
0-3 @ 2.03%
2-3 @ 1.76%
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 31.53%


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