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Thursday, March 28
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Premier League | Gameweek 38
Jul 26, 2020 at 4pm UK
Emirates Stadium
WL

Arsenal
3 - 2
Watford

Aubameyang (5' pen., 33'), Tierney (24')
Xhaka (45'), Holding (72'), Martinez (74')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Deeney (43' pen.), Welbeck (66')
Pereyra (35'), Hughes (45+4'), Dawson (51')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 47.62%. A win for Watford had a probability of 27.39% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
ArsenalDrawWatford
47.62%24.99%27.39%
Both teams to score 53.97%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.1%48.9%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.01%70.99%
Arsenal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.43%20.57%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.91%53.09%
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.94%32.06%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.47%68.53%
Score Analysis
    Arsenal 47.62%
    Watford 27.39%
    Draw 24.98%
ArsenalDrawWatford
1-0 @ 10.42%
2-1 @ 9.38%
2-0 @ 8.25%
3-1 @ 4.95%
3-0 @ 4.35%
3-2 @ 2.81%
4-1 @ 1.96%
4-0 @ 1.72%
4-2 @ 1.11%
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 47.62%
1-1 @ 11.86%
0-0 @ 6.59%
2-2 @ 5.34%
3-3 @ 1.07%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.98%
0-1 @ 7.5%
1-2 @ 6.75%
0-2 @ 4.27%
1-3 @ 2.56%
2-3 @ 2.02%
0-3 @ 1.62%
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 27.39%


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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