Although Middlesbrough recorded their first win of the season on Saturday, we think that a Watford side who have won two of their three home games this term will edge out Boro in midweek. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 37.52%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 35.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 0-1 (9.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Watford in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Watford.

Result
Watford	Draw	Middlesbrough
37.52% ( 0.01)	26.87% ( -0)	35.61% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 51.3% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.13% (

0.01)

53.87% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.67% (

0.01)

75.33% (

-0.01)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.2% (

0.01)

27.8% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.61% (

0.01)

63.39% (

-0.01)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.05% (

28.94% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.17%

64.83%

Score Analysis

Watford 37.52%

Middlesbrough 35.61%

Draw 26.87%

Watford	Draw	Middlesbrough
1-0 @ 10.3% 2-1 @ 8.17% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.59% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.49% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.81% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.16% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.12% ( 0) Other @ 2.87% Total : 37.52%	1-1 @ 12.77% 0-0 @ 8.05% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.07% ( 0) Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.87%	0-1 @ 9.98% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.92% 0-2 @ 6.18% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.27% 0-3 @ 2.56% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.09% 1-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.59% Total : 35.61%