Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 61.23%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Chongqing Dangdai Lifan had a probability of 18.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 1-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.6%), while for a Chongqing Dangdai Lifan win it was 1-2 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.