SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 66.49%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Sichuan Jiuniu had a probability of 14.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.06%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.05%), while for a Sichuan Jiuniu win it was 0-1 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Sichuan Jiuniu |
66.49% ( -0.08) | 19.18% ( 0.06) | 14.33% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 52.56% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.29% ( -0.23) | 40.7% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.91% ( -0.23) | 63.09% ( 0.23) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.63% ( -0.09) | 11.37% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.9% ( -0.19) | 36.09% ( 0.19) |
| Sichuan Jiuniu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.3% ( -0.11) | 40.7% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.71% ( -0.1) | 77.29% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Sichuan Jiuniu |
| 2-0 @ 10.93% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 10.06% ( 0.07)2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.93% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 4.31% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.87% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.68% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.92% Total : 66.48% | 1-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.63% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 19.18% | 0-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 4.07% ( 0)0-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.22% ( -0)Other @ 1.69% Total : 14.33% |
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