SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 48.93%. A win for Sichuan Jiuniu had a probability of 26.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (8.33%). The likeliest Sichuan Jiuniu win was 1-0 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sichuan Jiuniu | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
26.56% ( 1.55) | 24.51% ( 0.4) | 48.93% ( -1.95) |
| Both teams to score 54.83% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.55% ( -0.46) | 47.45% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.34% ( -0.43) | 69.66% ( 0.43) |
| Sichuan Jiuniu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.06% ( 1.01) | 31.94% ( -1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.6% ( 1.14) | 68.4% ( -1.14) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.56% ( -0.96) | 19.44% ( 0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.72% ( -1.59) | 51.28% ( 1.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sichuan Jiuniu | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 1-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.29)2-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.29)3-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.15)Other @ 2.68% Total : 26.56% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 6.21% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.5% | 0-1 @ 10.17% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 9.51% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 8.33% ( -0.35)1-3 @ 5.19% ( -0.23)0-3 @ 4.55% ( -0.34)2-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.13% ( -0.16)0-4 @ 1.86% ( -0.2)2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.03% Total : 48.93% |
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