SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sichuan Jiuniu win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 35.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sichuan Jiuniu win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (6.42%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sichuan Jiuniu would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Sichuan Jiuniu |
35.1% ( 0.02) | 25.35% ( -0.03) | 39.55% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 56.35% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.6% ( 0.14) | 47.4% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.39% ( 0.13) | 69.61% ( -0.13) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.86% ( 0.07) | 26.14% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.78% ( 0.1) | 61.21% ( -0.1) |
| Sichuan Jiuniu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.29% ( 0.06) | 23.71% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.17% ( 0.1) | 57.83% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Sichuan Jiuniu |
| 1-0 @ 8.31% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.03% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.59% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.49% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.31% Total : 35.1% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.34% | 0-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.61% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.42% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.13% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.08% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.77% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.11% ( 0)2-4 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.02% Total : 39.55% |
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