Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Henan Jianye win with a probability of 41.38%. A win for Guangzhou R&F had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Henan Jianye win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.2%) and 0-2 (5.37%). The likeliest Guangzhou R&F win was 2-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.