SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guangzhou City win with a probability of 75.42%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Hebei had a probability of 9.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guangzhou City win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.85%) and 1-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.18%), while for a Hebei win it was 0-1 (2.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guangzhou City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Guangzhou City | Draw | Hebei |
75.42% ( 0.78) | 15.24% ( -0.37) | 9.33% ( -0.42) |
| Both teams to score 49.96% ( -0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.45% ( 0.44) | 35.55% ( -0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.4% ( 0.48) | 57.6% ( -0.48) |
| Guangzhou City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.09% ( 0.27) | 7.9% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.03% ( 0.69) | 27.96% ( -0.68) |
| Hebei Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.24% ( -0.54) | 45.75% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.47% ( -0.43) | 81.53% ( 0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guangzhou City | Draw | Hebei |
| 2-0 @ 11.64% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 9.85% ( 0.18)1-0 @ 9.18% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 7.7% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.2)4-1 @ 4.89% ( 0.08)5-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 2.48% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.91% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.08)6-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.87% Total : 75.42% | 1-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.89% Total : 15.24% | 0-1 @ 2.83% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.66% Total : 9.33% |
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