SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 57.38%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Guangzhou City had a probability of 19.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.01%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Guangzhou City win it was 1-0 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Guangzhou City | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
19.97% ( 0.04) | 22.65% ( 0.03) | 57.38% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 52.79% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.72% ( -0.07) | 46.28% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.43% ( -0.07) | 68.57% ( 0.06) |
| Guangzhou City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.75% ( 0.01) | 37.25% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.96% ( 0.01) | 74.03% ( -0.01) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.13% ( -0.05) | 15.87% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.91% ( -0.09) | 45.09% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guangzhou City | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 1-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 2.88% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.75% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.61% ( 0)3-0 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 1.64% Total : 19.97% | 1-1 @ 10.74% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.91% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.88% 3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.64% | 0-1 @ 10.88% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 10.01% 1-2 @ 9.89% ( -0)0-3 @ 6.14% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 6.07% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3% ( -0)0-4 @ 2.83% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.79% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.38% ( -0)0-5 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 2.31% Total : 57.37% |
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