The MLS campaign does not begin until late February, and Seattle have not played in a competitive fixture, aside from a few friendlies since October, while the Egyptians have competed in plenty of meaningful games this year.
We anticipate the firepower and experience of Al Ahly on the international stage will be too much for a Seattle team who might not physically be in the same kind of game shape as their opponents.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Seattle Sounders win with a probability of 40.47%. A win for Al Ahly had a probability of 35.17% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Seattle Sounders win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.89%) and 2-0 (6.11%). The likeliest Al Ahly win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Al Ahly would win this match.
