Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Saprissa win with a probability of 44.87%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Saprissa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
0.19) 
-0.06) 
