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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 56%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for New England Revolution had a probability of 21.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.66%), while for a New England Revolution win it was 0-1 (5.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | New England Revolution |
56% ( 1.08) | 22.62% ( 0.29) | 21.38% ( -1.37) |
| Both teams to score 55.07% ( -2.9) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.69% ( -2.94) | 44.31% ( 2.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.32% ( -2.92) | 66.69% ( 2.92) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.35% ( -0.66) | 15.66% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.32% ( -1.23) | 44.69% ( 1.24) |
| New England Revolution Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.29% ( -2.9) | 34.72% ( 2.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.56% ( -3.19) | 71.45% ( 3.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | New England Revolution |
| 1-0 @ 10.07% ( 1.02) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 9.34% ( 0.76)3-1 @ 6.11% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 5.78% ( 0.35)3-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.33)4-1 @ 2.83% ( -0.12)4-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.19)5-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.07)5-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.52% Total : 55.99% | 1-1 @ 10.66% ( 0.3) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.67)2-2 @ 5.23% ( -0.4)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.22)Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.62% | 0-1 @ 5.75% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.3)0-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.28)2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.31)0-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.05% Total : 21.38% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 36 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 61 | 40 | 21 | 73 |
| 2 | Orlando City | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 69 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew | 37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 75 | 52 | 23 | 63 |
| 4 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 36 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 61 |
| 5 | New England RevolutionNew England | 36 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 55 |
| 6 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 37 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 72 | 61 | 11 | 54 |
| 7 | Nashville SCNashville | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 34 | 5 | 49 |
| 8 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 37 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 47 |
| 9 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 43 |
| 10 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 41 |
| 11 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 41 |
| 12 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 49 | -4 | 40 |
| 13 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 40 |
| 14 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 34 |
| 15 | Toronto | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 22 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 37 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 45 | 35 | 10 | 59 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 36 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 60 | 41 | 19 | 58 |
| 3 | Houston DynamoHouston | 37 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 55 | 41 | 14 | 56 |
| 4 | St Louis City | 36 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 56 |
| 5 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 52 |
| 6 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 37 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 54 | 53 | 1 | 51 |
| 7 | Dallas | 37 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 41 | 3 | 49 |
| 8 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 48 |
| 9 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 35 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 45 |
| 10 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 43 |
| 11 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 41 |
| 12 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 39 |
| 13 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 51 | 67 | -16 | 36 |
| 14 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 27 |
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