SM
| Current League C Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Anguilla | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Bonaire | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Saint Martin | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League A Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Panama | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Martinique | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Guatemala | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Curacao | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | El Salvador | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Curacao win with a probability of 43.78%. A win for Saint Martin had a probability of 34.04% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Curacao win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.71%) and 1-3 (5.35%). The likeliest Saint Martin win was 2-1 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Curacao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Saint Martin | Draw | Curacao |
34.04% ( 0.16) | 22.18% ( 0.07) | 43.78% ( -0.24) |
| Both teams to score 67.8% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.63% ( -0.32) | 32.37% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.01% ( -0.37) | 53.99% ( 0.37) |
| Saint Martin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.28% ( -0.07) | 19.72% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.27% ( -0.11) | 51.73% ( 0.11) |
| Curacao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.45% ( -0.21) | 15.55% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.51% ( -0.4) | 44.49% ( 0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Saint Martin | Draw | Curacao |
| 2-1 @ 7.52% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 4.98% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 4.07% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.65% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.31% Total : 34.04% | 1-1 @ 9.27% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 7% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.07% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.5% Total : 22.18% | 1-2 @ 8.62% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.71% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 5.35% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 5.31% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 4.34% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 3.29% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.49% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 2.02% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.02)3-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.09% Total : 43.78% |
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