SM
| Current League B Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Saint Lucia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Guadeloupe | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Sint Maarten | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League A Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Panama | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Martinique | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Guatemala | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Curacao | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | El Salvador | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Lucia win with a probability of 40.22%. A win for Curacao had a probability of 33.86% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint Lucia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Curacao win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint Lucia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Saint Lucia | Draw | Curacao |
40.22% ( 0.09) | 25.92% ( -0.01) | 33.86% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 54.14% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.86% ( 0.03) | 50.14% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.9% ( 0.03) | 72.1% ( -0.02) |
| Saint Lucia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.41% ( 0.06) | 24.59% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.92% ( 0.09) | 59.08% ( -0.08) |
| Curacao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.79% ( -0.03) | 28.21% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.09% ( -0.04) | 63.91% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Saint Lucia | Draw | Curacao |
| 1-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.04% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.19% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.56% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.7% Total : 40.22% | 1-1 @ 12.31% 0-0 @ 6.94% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.92% | 0-1 @ 8.78% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.79% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.29% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 2.76% Total : 33.86% |
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