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Copa America | Group Stage
Jun 26, 2024 at 11pm UK
Allegiant Stadium
JN

Ecuador
3 - 1
Jamaica

Palmer (13'), Paez (45+4' pen.), Minda (90+1')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Antonio (54')
Lowe (39'), Hector (49'), Latibeaudiere (80'), Anderson (90+4')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Copa America
Last Game: Ecuador 1-2 Venezuela
Saturday, June 22 at 11pm in Copa America
All competitions
Copa America
Last Game: Mexico 1-0 Jamaica
Sunday, June 23 at 2am in Copa America

We said: Ecuador 1-0 Jamaica

Even with their goal ruled out, the Reggae Boys were quite wasteful in their opener and could have difficulty penetrating a well-organised Ecuadorian backline that have bounced back well from setbacks. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 41.34%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.14%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 0-1 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.

Result
EcuadorDrawJamaica
41.34% (0.024999999999999 0.02) 28.73% (0.062000000000001 0.06) 29.92% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09)
Both teams to score 44.5% (-0.207 -0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.24% (-0.235 -0.23)61.75% (0.23399999999999 0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.44% (-0.175 -0.18)81.55% (0.173 0.17)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.58% (-0.104 -0.1)29.41% (0.103 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.59% (-0.126 -0.13)65.4% (0.125 0.13)
Jamaica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.04% (-0.198 -0.2)36.95% (0.197 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.26% (-0.197 -0.2)73.74% (0.197 0.2)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 41.34%
    Jamaica 29.91%
    Draw 28.72%
EcuadorDrawJamaica
1-0 @ 13.3% (0.08 0.08)
2-0 @ 8.14% (0.025 0.03)
2-1 @ 8.1% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.32% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-1 @ 3.31% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.65% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.02% (-0.002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.01% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 41.34%
1-1 @ 13.24% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 10.86% (0.09 0.09)
2-2 @ 4.03% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 0.59%
Total : 28.72%
0-1 @ 10.81% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
1-2 @ 6.59% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-2 @ 5.39% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.19% (-0.022 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.79% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.34% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 29.91%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Ecuador 1-2 Venezuela
Saturday, June 22 at 11pm in Copa America
Last Game: Ecuador 2-1 Honduras
Sunday, June 16 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 3-1 Bolivia
Thursday, June 13 at 1.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Ecuador
Monday, June 10 at 12am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 0-2 Italy
Sunday, March 24 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 2-0 Guatemala
Friday, March 22 at 12.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 1-0 Jamaica
Sunday, June 23 at 2am in Copa America
Last Game: Dominica 2-3 Jamaica
Sunday, June 9 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - North Central America
Last Game: Jamaica 1-0 Dominican Rep.
Thursday, June 6 at 9.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - North Central America
Last Game: Panama 0-1 Jamaica
Sunday, March 24 at 10pm in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: USA 3-1 Jamaica
Thursday, March 21 at 11pm in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Trin. & Tob. 0-0 Jamaica
Sunday, March 3 at 8pm in International Friendlies


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