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Friendlies 1
Jun 16, 2024 at 8.30pm UK
Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field
HN

Ecuador
2 - 1
Honduras

Sarmiento (8'), Hincapie (89')
Paez (57'), Gruezo (84')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Rochez (29' pen.)
Alvarez (62'), Enrique Martinez (68')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 3-1 Bolivia
Thursday, June 13 at 1.30am in International Friendlies
All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Bermuda 1-6 Honduras
Monday, June 10 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - North Central America

We said: Ecuador 3-1 Honduras

There is a considerable gap in quality between these two nations, as Ecuador are among South America's top teams and Honduras failed to even qualify for a guest spot at the Copa America. Though El Tri might decide to preserve some of their best players for the upcoming tournament, they should make light work of opponents that have only beaten minnows in 2024. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Honduras win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.

Result
EcuadorDrawHonduras
43.86% (0.1 0.1) 26.33% (0.091000000000001 0.09) 29.81% (-0.189 -0.19)
Both teams to score 51.32% (-0.383 -0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.93% (-0.447 -0.45)53.08% (0.44900000000001 0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.34% (-0.38 -0.38)74.66% (0.381 0.38)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.95% (-0.148 -0.15)24.05% (0.148 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.67% (-0.211 -0.21)58.33% (0.211 0.21)
Honduras Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.58% (-0.372 -0.37)32.42% (0.372 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.06% (-0.42 -0.42)68.94% (0.422 0.42)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 43.86%
    Honduras 29.81%
    Draw 26.32%
EcuadorDrawHonduras
1-0 @ 11.11% (0.15 0.15)
2-1 @ 8.92% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.92% (0.071 0.07)
3-1 @ 4.24% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.76% (0.017 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.39% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.51% (-0.015 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.34% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 43.86%
1-1 @ 12.51% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 7.8% (0.137 0.14)
2-2 @ 5.02% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 26.32%
0-1 @ 8.78% (0.066000000000001 0.07)
1-2 @ 7.05% (-0.05 -0.05)
0-2 @ 4.95% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.65% (-0.046 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.89% (-0.041 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.86% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 29.81%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Ecuador 3-1 Bolivia
Thursday, June 13 at 1.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Ecuador
Monday, June 10 at 12am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 0-2 Italy
Sunday, March 24 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 2-0 Guatemala
Friday, March 22 at 12.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 1-0 Chile
Tuesday, November 21 at 11.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Venezuela 0-0 Ecuador
Thursday, November 16 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Bermuda 1-6 Honduras
Monday, June 10 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - North Central America
Last Game: Honduras 3-1 Cuba
Friday, June 7 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - North Central America
Last Game: El Salvador 1-1 Honduras
Wednesday, March 27 at 1am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Costa Rica 3-1 Honduras
Saturday, March 23 at 11.15pm in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Honduras 0-2 Iceland
Thursday, January 18 at 1am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 2-0 Honduras (4-2 pen.)
Wednesday, November 22 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League


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