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Copa America | Group Stage
Jun 22, 2024 at 11pm UK
Levi's Stadium
VN

Ecuador
1 - 2
Venezuela

Sarmiento (40')
Sarmiento (29'), Paez (45+1')
Valencia (22')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Cadiz (64'), Bello (74')
Machis (31'), Casseres Jr (45+2')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Ecuador 2-1 Honduras
Sunday, June 16 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies
All competitions
Last Game: Guatemala 0-0 Venezuela
Sunday, March 24 at 10pm in International Friendlies

We said: Ecuador 2-1 Venezuela

There is not an awful lot to choose between these two sides, and we are expecting a close match on Saturday. It would not be a surprise to see a draw, but we are just backing Ecuador to have enough to navigate their way to a vital victory in their opening match of what is shaping up to be a fascinating competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 47.5%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 23.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.84%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (10.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.

Result
EcuadorDrawVenezuela
47.5% (0.084000000000003 0.08) 29.22% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01) 23.28% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)
Both teams to score 39.16% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
33.75% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)66.25% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
15.24% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)84.75% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.7% (0.040999999999997 0.04)28.29% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.98% (0.052999999999997 0.05)64.02% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)
Venezuela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.61% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)45.38% (0.07 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.76% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)81.24% (0.055999999999997 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 47.49%
    Venezuela 23.27%
    Draw 29.21%
EcuadorDrawVenezuela
1-0 @ 16.21% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 10.23% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 8.09% (0.0040000000000013 0)
3-0 @ 4.31% (0.016 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.4% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.36% (0.006 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.34%
4-1 @ 1.07% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 1.48%
Total : 47.49%
0-0 @ 12.84%
1-1 @ 12.8% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.19% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 29.21%
0-1 @ 10.14% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 5.06% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.01% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.33% (-0.006 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.06% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 1.68%
Total : 23.27%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Ecuador 2-1 Honduras
Sunday, June 16 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 3-1 Bolivia
Thursday, June 13 at 1.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Ecuador
Monday, June 10 at 12am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 0-2 Italy
Sunday, March 24 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 2-0 Guatemala
Friday, March 22 at 12.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 1-0 Chile
Tuesday, November 21 at 11.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Guatemala 0-0 Venezuela
Sunday, March 24 at 10pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Italy 2-1 Venezuela
Thursday, March 21 at 9pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Colombia 1-0 Venezuela
Sunday, December 10 at 11.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Peru 1-1 Venezuela
Wednesday, November 22 at 2am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Venezuela 0-0 Ecuador
Thursday, November 16 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Venezuela 3-0 Chile
Tuesday, October 17 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America


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