SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Italy had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Italy win was 0-1 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Italy |
39.5% ( 0.02) | 27.86% ( -0) | 32.63% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 47.79% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.93% ( 0.01) | 58.07% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.25% ( 0.01) | 78.74% ( -0.01) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.33% ( 0.01) | 28.67% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.51% ( 0.02) | 64.49% ( -0.02) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67% ( -0.01) | 33% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.41% ( -0.01) | 69.58% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 11.81% 2-1 @ 8.19% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.38% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.41% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.07% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.89% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.07% ( 0)4-0 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 1.71% Total : 39.49% | 1-1 @ 13.1% 0-0 @ 9.46% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.54% ( 0)Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.86% | 0-1 @ 10.48% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.27% ( -0)0-2 @ 5.82% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.69% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.15% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.55% Total : 32.63% |
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