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Friendlies 1
Jun 13, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Subaru Park
BN

Ecuador
3 - 1
Bolivia

Valencia (18'), Yeboah (25'), Caicedo (70' pen.)
Gruezo (80'), Caicedo (86')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Terceros (88')
Fernandez (9'), Algaranaz (31'), Villamil (70'), Justiniano (77'), Ramallo (82')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Ecuador
Monday, June 10 at 12am in International Friendlies
All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 1-0 Bolivia
Saturday, June 1 at 2.30am in International Friendlies

We said: Ecuador 2-1 Bolivia

A closely-fought contest could be on the cards on Thursday between two evenly-matched nations, but Ecuador will be regarded as slight favourites and should have enough quality in the final third to outscore their opponents en route to a slender friendly victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 74.36%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 8.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.79%) and 3-0 (11.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.98%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (3.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.

Result
EcuadorDrawBolivia
74.36% (-0.56099999999999 -0.56) 17.54% (0.15 0.15) 8.1% (0.4099 0.41)
Both teams to score 36.72% (1.278 1.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.78% (0.68 0.68)50.22% (-0.68 -0.68)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.83% (0.6 0.6)72.17% (-0.59999999999999 -0.6)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.06% (0.034999999999997 0.03)11.94% (-0.035 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.69% (0.077000000000005 0.08)37.31% (-0.074999999999996 -0.07)
Bolivia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
41.7% (1.436 1.44)58.3% (-1.435 -1.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
10.24% (0.758 0.76)89.75% (-0.759 -0.76)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 74.34%
    Bolivia 8.1%
    Draw 17.54%
EcuadorDrawBolivia
2-0 @ 15.71% (-0.4 -0.4)
1-0 @ 14.79% (-0.38 -0.38)
3-0 @ 11.13% (-0.26 -0.26)
2-1 @ 8.48% (0.182 0.18)
3-1 @ 6.01% (0.137 0.14)
4-0 @ 5.92% (-0.129 -0.13)
4-1 @ 3.19% (0.077 0.08)
5-0 @ 2.52% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-2 @ 1.62% (0.109 0.11)
5-1 @ 1.36% (0.035 0.04)
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 74.34%
1-1 @ 7.98% (0.159 0.16)
0-0 @ 6.96% (-0.193 -0.19)
2-2 @ 2.29% (0.15 0.15)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 17.54%
0-1 @ 3.76% (0.07 0.07)
1-2 @ 2.15% (0.139 0.14)
0-2 @ 1.01% (0.064 0.06)
Other @ 1.18%
Total : 8.1%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Ecuador
Monday, June 10 at 12am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 0-2 Italy
Sunday, March 24 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 2-0 Guatemala
Friday, March 22 at 12.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 1-0 Chile
Tuesday, November 21 at 11.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Venezuela 0-0 Ecuador
Thursday, November 16 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Ecuador 0-0 Colombia
Wednesday, October 18 at 12.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Mexico 1-0 Bolivia
Saturday, June 1 at 2.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Bolivia 1-0 Andorra
Monday, March 25 at 9pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Algeria 3-2 Bolivia
Friday, March 22 at 9pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Uruguay 3-0 Bolivia
Tuesday, November 21 at 11.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Bolivia 2-0 Peru
Thursday, November 16 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Paraguay 1-0 Bolivia
Tuesday, October 17 at 11.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America


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