SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 70.91%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 10.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.97%) and 3-0 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.63%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (3.96%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Uruguay | Draw | Bolivia |
70.91% ( 0.01) | 18.16% ( 0.05) | 10.92% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 45.55% ( -0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.45% ( -0.41) | 44.54% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.09% ( -0.39) | 66.91% ( 0.39) |
| Uruguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.71% ( -0.11) | 11.28% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.1% ( -0.25) | 35.9% ( 0.24) |
| Bolivia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.34% ( -0.38) | 48.65% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.29% ( -0.28) | 83.71% ( 0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Uruguay | Draw | Bolivia |
| 2-0 @ 13.06% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 11.97% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 9.5% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 9.41% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 5.18% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.74% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.48% Total : 70.9% | 1-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.65% Total : 18.16% | 0-1 @ 3.96% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 1.43% ( -0)Other @ 2.43% Total : 10.92% |
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