SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 83.81%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 3.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 2-0 with a probability of 17.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.73%) and 1-0 (14.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (5.72%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (2.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Uruguay | Draw | Bolivia |
83.81% ( 0.06) | 12.34% ( -0.03) | 3.85% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 28.36% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.49% ( 0.03) | 45.51% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.17% ( 0.03) | 67.84% ( -0.02) |
| Uruguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.72% ( 0.02) | 8.28% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.09% ( 0.05) | 28.91% ( -0.05) |
| Bolivia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 30.92% ( -0.08) | 69.08% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 5.37% ( -0.03) | 94.63% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Uruguay | Draw | Bolivia |
| 2-0 @ 17.75% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 14.73% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 14.25% 4-0 @ 9.18% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 6.57% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.4% ( -0)6-0 @ 1.9% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.69% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.3% Total : 83.8% | 0-0 @ 5.72% ( -0.01) 1-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 12.34% | 0-1 @ 2.12% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.76% Total : 3.85% |
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