Uruguay's defensive exploits both during and in the build-up to the Copa America have been nothing short of sensational, but with Araujo gone and Nandez banned, a reshuffle spells danger against a seemingly invincible Colombia.
Bielsa's men will no doubt give the Tricolour a magnificent run for their money, but we still cannot picture a scenario in which Lozano's Rodriguez-inspired men fail to set up a tantalising final versus Argentina or Canada, forcing Uruguay to battle for bronze instead.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 36.1%. A win for Uruguay had a probability of 35.21% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.58%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Uruguay win was 1-0 (11.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Colombia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Colombia.
-0.29) 
0.34) 
