Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 66.44%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Cacereno had a probability of 11.89%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.51%) and 1-2 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Cacereno win it was 1-0 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
0.23) 
-0.78) 
