Shocks can always happen in this competition, and Cacereno will have gained huge confidence from their win over Girona in the last round. We are finding it very tough to predict an upset here, though, with Real Madrid likely to be far too strong for their opponents on Tuesday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 69.56%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Cacereno had a probability of 12.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.91%) and 1-2 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.46%), while for a Cacereno win it was 1-0 (3.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
0.35) 
-0.46) 
