Alaves, despite their struggles on the road this season, are capable of making this an uncomfortable match for Atletico; Simeone's side are on a roll at the moment, though, and we are expecting them to keep another clean sheet in a routine home success.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 66.47%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 12.83%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.27%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
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