Heading into this encounter, Galo have won their last 11 matches at home in all competitions and have not lost at Mineirao since a 2-1 defeat to Fortaleza at the end of May.
Furacao seem to be well-suited to these knockout stage games, but they will need to be as stingy as ever to stop the offensive depth that Atletico possess, and it is hard to see that happening given that the Brasilerio champions have only been shut out once in their last 20 matches played in all competitions.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 73.11%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 9.56%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.36%) and 3-0 (10.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.2%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (3.68%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
