We said: Fluminense 1-1 Cruzeiro
Even though these teams play in opposite divisions, we can expect two tight matches between these sides, who possess plenty of quality in all areas of the field.
Cruzeiro have a point to prove that they can be a force to be reckoned with once again, so we expect they will give a talented Fluzao squad all they can handle.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 47.16%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 26.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.