Fluminense are slight favourites for this clash given that they are on home soil, but it is expected to be a closely-fought affair between two rivals from Rio de Janeiro.
Both teams have scored and conceded the same amount this season, which is another indicator for a tight match, but despite less rest ahead of this outing, Fluminense should be able to edge past their visitors.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 46.2%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 27.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (8.46%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 1-0 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.04) 
