Avai come in with plenty of momentum, while their hosts may be lacking a degree of confidence, and we predict a tight contest as a result.
Ultimately, we see a share of the spoils as the most likely outcome, with the newly-promoted side expected to do enough to leave with a point.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 55.32%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Avai had a probability of 20.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.72%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for an Avai win it was 0-1 (7%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
0.36) 
-0.15) 
