Fluminense have the benefit of playing at home in this match, but they have not been as strong throughout the early parts of this season as their opponents.
Atletico Mineiro are expected to be in the title hunt by the end of the campaign, therefore they head into this as favourites, and should be strong enough to take all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 43.66%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 29.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 1-0 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0% likelihood.
-0.22) 
0.39) 
