Vitoria have shown they can keep their matches close, but rarely has that been enough for them to win, and we wonder if they have enough talent to upset an experienced and well-balanced Fogo side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 42.72%. A win for Vitoria had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (7.94%). The likeliest Vitoria win was 1-0 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
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