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Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 1st Leg
May 22, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Manoel Barradas
BL

Vitoria
1 - 2
Botafogo

Junior (78')
Carpini (0'), Matheuzinho (55'), Junior (83')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Henrique (45+2'), Santos (63')
Halter (51'), John (53'), Cuiabano (65'), Tche (77'), Hugo (82')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Vasco 2-1 Vitoria
Sunday, May 12 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Universitario 0-1 Botafogo
Thursday, May 16 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

We said: Vitoria 0-1 Botafogo (Botafogo advances 2-0 on aggregate)

Vitoria have shown they can keep their matches close, but rarely has that been enough for them to win, and we wonder if they have enough talent to upset an experienced and well-balanced Fogo side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 42.72%. A win for Vitoria had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (7.94%). The likeliest Vitoria win was 1-0 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.

Result
VitoriaDrawBotafogo
30.2% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 27.08% (-0.0019999999999989 -0) 42.72% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Both teams to score 49.23% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.14%55.85% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.03% (0.0010000000000012 0)76.97% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Vitoria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.41% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)33.58% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.77% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)70.23% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Botafogo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.12% (0.0019999999999953 0)25.87% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.14% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)60.85% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Score Analysis
    Vitoria 30.2%
    Botafogo 42.71%
    Draw 27.08%
VitoriaDrawBotafogo
1-0 @ 9.48% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-1 @ 6.99% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 5.17% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-1 @ 2.54% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-0 @ 1.88% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 1.72%
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 30.2%
1-1 @ 12.81%
0-0 @ 8.69%
2-2 @ 4.73%
Other @ 0.85%
Total : 27.08%
0-1 @ 11.74%
1-2 @ 8.67% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 7.94% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-3 @ 3.91% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 3.58% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-3 @ 2.13%
1-4 @ 1.32% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-4 @ 1.21%
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 42.71%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Vasco 2-1 Vitoria
Sunday, May 12 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Vitoria 1-3 Sao Paulo
Sunday, May 5 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Cruzeiro 3-1 Vitoria
Sunday, April 28 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Vitoria 2-2 Bahia
Sunday, April 21 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Vitoria 0-1 Palmeiras
Sunday, April 14 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Vitoria 3-4 Ceara
Thursday, August 27 at 1.30am in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Universitario 0-1 Botafogo
Thursday, May 16 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Fortaleza 1-1 Botafogo
Sunday, May 12 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Botafogo 2-1 LDU Quito
Thursday, May 9 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Botafogo 1-2 Bahia
Sunday, May 5 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Flamengo 0-2 Botafogo
Sunday, April 28 at 3pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Botafogo 3-1 Universitario
Wednesday, April 24 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores


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