Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 58.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Universitario had a probability of 17.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Universitario win it was 0-1 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
0.23) 
-0.08) 
