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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 21, 2021 at 1.30am UK
Estadio José Amalfitani
F

Velez Sarsfield
2 - 3
Flamengo

Janson (21', 54')
Caseres (27'), Martin Lucero (35'), Hoyos (60'), Almada (66'), Galdames (85')
Mancuello (86')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Arao (43'), Barbosa (62' pen.), De Arrascaeta (80')
Henrique (46'), Alves (55'), Batista de Souza (73'), Henrique (83'), Diego (90+3')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 28.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.54%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 2-1 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.

Result
Velez SarsfieldDrawFlamengo
28.54%22.79%48.66%
Both teams to score 62.4%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.81%38.19%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.54%60.46%
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.29%25.71%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.36%60.64%
Flamengo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.99%16%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.67%45.33%
Score Analysis
    Velez Sarsfield 28.55%
    Flamengo 48.66%
    Draw 22.79%
Velez SarsfieldDrawFlamengo
2-1 @ 6.96%
1-0 @ 5.59%
2-0 @ 3.8%
3-1 @ 3.15%
3-2 @ 2.89%
3-0 @ 1.72%
4-1 @ 1.07%
4-2 @ 0.98%
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 28.55%
1-1 @ 10.24%
2-2 @ 6.37%
0-0 @ 4.12%
3-3 @ 1.76%
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 22.79%
1-2 @ 9.38%
0-1 @ 7.54%
0-2 @ 6.91%
1-3 @ 5.73%
0-3 @ 4.22%
2-3 @ 3.89%
1-4 @ 2.63%
0-4 @ 1.93%
2-4 @ 1.78%
1-5 @ 0.96%
Other @ 3.68%
Total : 48.66%

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