Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 39.52%. A win for Santa Fe had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Santa Fe win was 0-1 (10.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
