SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 45.7%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 27.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruzeiro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cruzeiro | Draw | Botafogo |
45.7% ( 0.75) | 26.86% ( -0.05) | 27.43% ( -0.7) |
| Both teams to score 48.32% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.74% ( -0.16) | 56.26% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.7% ( -0.13) | 77.3% ( 0.13) |
| Cruzeiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.44% ( 0.3) | 24.56% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.95% ( 0.41) | 59.04% ( -0.41) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.05% ( -0.64) | 35.94% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.28% ( -0.67) | 72.72% ( 0.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cruzeiro | Draw | Botafogo |
| 1-0 @ 12.39% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 8.9% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 8.7% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 4.17% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.44% Total : 45.7% | 1-1 @ 12.68% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.83% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.8% Total : 26.86% | 0-1 @ 9.03% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 6.49% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.95% Total : 27.43% |
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