Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 41.19%. A win for Jorge Wilstermann had a probability of 35.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.18%) and 2-0 (5.86%). The likeliest Jorge Wilstermann win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ceara would win this match.
