Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 53.16%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 21.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.54%) and 1-2 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.97%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.