Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.27%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 26.75% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (8.73%). The likeliest Fenix win was 1-0 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.