SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 38.86%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 32.59% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (11.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Fortaleza |
38.86% ( 0.41) | 28.54% ( -0.03) | 32.59% ( -0.37) |
| Both teams to score 45.84% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.5% ( 0.05) | 60.5% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.38% ( 0.04) | 80.62% ( -0.03) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.76% ( 0.27) | 30.23% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.6% ( 0.32) | 66.4% ( -0.31) |
| Fortaleza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.7% ( -0.24) | 34.3% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29% ( -0.25) | 71% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Fortaleza |
| 1-0 @ 12.4% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 3.17% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.96% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.33% Total : 38.86% | 1-1 @ 13.27% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.36% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0)Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.53% | 0-1 @ 11.09% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 7.1% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 5.94% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.29% Total : 32.59% |
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