Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 57.96%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 18.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Cerro Porteno win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
-0.12) 
0.04) 
