Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 36.51%. A win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.26%) and 2-1 (7.03%). The likeliest Boca Juniors win was 0-1 (12.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for San Lorenzo in this match.
0.06) 
-0.1) 
