Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Sportivo Ameliano had a probability of 16.64%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.02%) and 1-2 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Sportivo Ameliano win it was 1-0 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.
1.25) 
-1.43) 
