Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 40.43%. A win for Colon had a probability of 30.67% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Colon win was 0-1 (11.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Patronato would win this match.