AC Milan have already beaten Lazio at the San Siro this season after winning 2-0 in Serie A back in September, and following their victory in the Milan derby on Saturday, the hosts will be oozing with confidence, and we think that they will use to that to their advantage to edge out the visitors on Wednesday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 53.22%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 23.51% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (8.83%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (6.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
