SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 58.65%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Cesena had a probability of 18.97%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.62%), while for a Cesena win it was 0-1 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Cesena |
58.65% ( -0.3) | 22.38% ( 0.1) | 18.97% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 51.98% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.47% ( -0.13) | 46.52% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.2% ( -0.12) | 68.8% ( 0.12) |
| Atalanta BC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.46% ( -0.14) | 15.53% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.54% ( -0.27) | 44.45% ( 0.26) |
| Cesena Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.53% ( 0.14) | 38.46% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.78% ( 0.13) | 75.21% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Cesena |
| 1-0 @ 11.12% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.36% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.43% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.94% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.86% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.35% Total : 58.64% | 1-1 @ 10.62% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.97% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.37% | 0-1 @ 5.71% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 5.08% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.34% Total : 18.97% |
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